Technology’s been reshaping the world in waves.
Some subtle. Some seismic.
I’ve had a front-row seat through most of them — which probably says something about my age.
From the early days of CD-ROMs and Flash, to the dotcom boom, Web2, multi-channel ecosystems, and now the age of AI… every shift has brought promise and pain.
This latest one? It’s exposing what many already felt: something’s been off in design and tech for a while.
How we got here
Let’s not pretend everything was rosy before the layoffs.
Many of us saw the signs. Design teams that doubled every 18 months without corresponding increases in output or impact. Role titles that multiplied without clarity: Product Design Engineer, UX/UI Engineer, Patient Experience Designer, Enterprise Solution Designer. Each sounding important, few with clear accountability or distinct value.
The bigger issue? Many of these roles were being defined by people outside the discipline. Not always their fault for being in that position, but the misalignment was real. Frameworks layered on frameworks, rituals consuming more time than the work itself.
Plenty of amazing designers got caught in the storm. That’s the injustice of it.
But to be honest, a lot of mediocrity made it through the door too. Fake-it-till-you-make-it leadership became normalised. People who looked the part but couldn’t deliver. Culture built on personal brand over collective value. Visibility mattered more than substance.
And the good people? Many left quietly. Not because they couldn’t do the work, but because they couldn’t stomach the politics, the performative bullshit, or watching standards drop while no one said anything.
That slow erosion is what got us here. The layoffs didn’t create the problem. They exposed it.
Patterns that crept in
- Bad hires leading to worse hires. People brought in others who wouldn’t challenge them, who looked the part, but couldn’t deliver.
- Broken performance reviews. The bar dropped, and with it, the quality of leadership. Promotions went to those who stayed visible, not necessarily those creating value.
- Process theatre over real progress. The obsession with being busy replaced focus. Layered rituals, shiny slides, and frameworks, but not enough real impact.
- The accountability gap. Few people owned outcomes. Everyone had a voice in the process, but when things failed, no one was responsible.
This isn’t just a design problem, it’s part of a wider societal cycle.
The bigger cycle: Fourth Turning
This pattern isn’t new. There’s a theory called the “Fourth Turning” that describes how societies move through cyclical phases of growth, excess, collapse, and renewal. The idea isn’t political, it’s historical. Prosperity breeds complacency. Complacency invites crisis. Crisis forces correction.
The quote often used is:
“Hard times create strong people, strong people create good times, good times create weak people, and weak people create hard times.”
It’s crude, sure. And gendered language aside, the pattern holds across history. We’re in that correction phase now. Not just in design, but everywhere: politics, trade, leadership, even trust in institutions.
This reset is painful. But it clears space for something better.
Where we are now
The layoffs? They weren’t just about budgets. They were a response to years of excess, misjudgement, and misalignment. Unfortunately, good people have paid the price for bad systems.
Some of the industry’s best, people I’ve looked up to for years, are out of work right now. Not because they weren’t good. But because value became hard to see in a noisy system built on fluff.
If you’re reading this and you’re one of them: it’s not you. The system failed us all.
And if you’re hiring? Think very carefully about who you bring in next. The margin for error is getting smaller.
What would happen if we repeated the same mistakes again?
The AI curveball
AI doesn’t care about your org chart or politics.
It’ll expose underperformance faster than ever. And if you get your next set of hires wrong, especially your next set of leaders, you’re not just stalling progress. You’re actively setting your company back. The pace of competition has accelerated. Make the wrong calls now and by the time you realise it, others will be miles ahead thanks to AI.
On the flip side: AI also amplifies good decisions. Get the right people in place, people who understand both the craft and the business, and the compounding gains are enormous. They’ll move faster, build smarter, and create leverage that scales beyond what was possible before.
The organisations that rebuild thoughtfully now will have a serious advantage over those rushing to fill seats without strategy.
Which side of that do you want to be on?
Where we go next
This isn’t the death of design. It’s a rebirth.
- Those who’ve quietly delivered value without shouting about it? They’ll rise.
- Those who understand the business, who listen deeply, who move fast but with purpose, they’ll shape what’s next.
- The future is cross-functional, tech-integrated, and impact-led. No more silos. No more design for design’s sake.
Some of the strongest designers and builders I know are sharpening their tools right now, preparing to help rebuild something better. I’m with them.
And in all of this, we can’t lose sight of two things we’ll need later: ethical design and genuine innovation. Stifle either, and we’re back in the mess we just came from.
What kind of future do you want to help shape?
